The European Union (EU) is a creation of the progress in the thoughts of the European politicians, intellectuals and leaders after the end of World War II, which has no equivalent all over the world. Even 60 years after its formation nobody can define its essence with one sentence – whether the EU is a unitary state, federation or confederation. It is true that the EU comprises elements of all of them but it is still neither one of them completely. The most precise and appropriate definition which I can give for the EU is that it is “something which does not resemble anything else worldwide”. This precision, of course, is too relative.
The impossibility to be given a definition for the essence of the EU with a sentence determines the direction of the reply related to the future of the EU. Therefore, when we talk about how the EU would look like after 10, 20 or more years, we actually have to answer the question which of the three above mentioned models the Union will be- come closer, which in turn depends on the extent to which Member States will continue to give up sovereignty. The possibilities in this direction are two. In the first, Member States will stop giving up sovereignty to the level to which they have arrived at this point. The other possibility consists in giving up more sovereignty and the end of this process would be the creation of a federal state in Europe.

Let’s first focus on the near future and imagine Eu- rope around 2030. If the 2020 Strategy is accomplished in each of its five main goals, the EU will stabilize itself and the economies will be calmed. I am positive that in the period 2020-2030 the EU will develop a new strategy which, if becomes accomplished, will possibly put the Union in a lea- ding international position in economic and political terms. This is the first option for the future of the EU in which Member States strictly observe their commitment. Unfortunately, this often does not happen and therefore, it is necessary that the EU intervenes and urges the states to stick to their obligations. For achieving this aim, the EU has to dispose of the needed mechanisms with which to stimulate Member States to fulfill their obligations. Hence, my vision for the future of the EU is deter- mined by the fact that Member States need to continue giving up part of their sovereignty. Without this, the EU would not be able to control the willful actions of some countries which populist policies can jeopardize the future of the Union. For the opponents of this thesis I will give as an example the Lisbon Strategy which has failed exactly because

of the fact that Member States had made commitments only in words but in practice they never fulfilled them. The EU failed to get them to do so due to the lack of effective control mechanisms. This could also happen with the 2020 Strategy. This could happen with every attempt of the Union for closer integration such as the Euro area where Member States have built a monetary union but not also an economical. This led to an exhausting financial crisis in many countries and lowered the authority of the EU.

This is my vision not only for 2030 or 2050. Then the challenges will be far more different but the principle will be the same. We need that “ever closer union” which will bring stability and prosperity in Europe. This cannot be done if Member States do not continue to give up their sovereignty depending on the difficulties which the EU faces.